This edition of the STAT December 2015 newsletter covers November 2015 residential real estate data for the Valley of the Sun – Metro Phoenix, AZ. In this month’s issue, Tom Ruff of the Information Market mentions that November was both very typical and very interesting. When looking back at the historical data, most metrics landed exactly as expected, but something odd was brewing with the median sales price. In our last issue of STAT, we were scratching our heads when we reviewed our prediction for prices: “Our math on the PPI is projecting lower numbers than logically acceptable, leaning more on the model than the logical prediction. The ARMLS Pending Price Index projects a median sales price of $206,400 for November. Using more ARMLS secret sauce and my own logic, I predict a median of $210,000. We’ll see if our model holds up.” — STAT November 2015 (analysis of data for October 2015)
Tom also mentions that the median sales prices landed at $209,000, which confirmed something went haywire in our model. Conversely, the secret sauce prediction was off by a tiny 0.5% difference. What is in the ARMLS secret sauce that is missing in our model? TRID!.. Check out the STAT highlights below and be sure to read the entire STAT December 2015 newsletter.
December STAT Highlights
Monthly Sales – 5,311 Units Sold – Up 6.5% from last year. Down 15.8% from last month.
New Inventory – 7,859 Listings – Up 4.8% from last year. Down 21.8% from last month.
Total Inventory – 24,918 Active Listings for Sale. Down 9.1% from last year. Up 1.1% from last month.
Months Supply of Inventory – 4.69 Months. Up slightly over the past two months.
New List Prices – Average List Price is $367.8K. Up 10% from last year.
Sales Prices – Average Sales Price is $264.6K. Up 5.4% from last year.
Foreclosures Pending – 4,383 Units – Down 25% from last year. Down 2.5% from last month.
Distressed Sales – 313 Units or 5.9% of current total sales in MLS. Down 35.6% from last year.
Average Days on the Market – 73 – Down 15 days from last year.
If you are a potential home buyer and have questions regarding the current real estate market data in the specific area where you are planning to purchase, be sure to consult with your Realtor or feel free to Contact US.
If you would like to search homes for sale throughout the Valley of the Sun, be sure to visit our Home Search Page.
Arizona Regional Multiple Listings Service’s (ARMLS®) monthly statistical newsletter STAT, provides a timely view of what is happening to the residential real estate market in the Valley of the Sun – The Metro Phoenix Area. Unlike statistics compiled by other entities, it does not rely on third party data. STAT’s focus is on SALES and ACTIVE INVENTORY, year over year and month over month, including details on sales prices, foreclosures and short commentary. * The most current version will provide data from the previous month.